NOTE: This article was written Aug. 2006.
Neoconservatism has been taking some serious blows lately, but Francis Fukuyama's piece in The New York Times, "After Neo-conservatism," may have been the knockout.
"As we pass the fourth anniversary of the onset of the Iraq war, it seems very unlikely that history will judge it kindly. By invading Iraq, the Bush administration created a self-fulfilling prophecy: Iraq has now replaced Afghanistan as a training ground for jihadist terrorists, with plenty of American targets to shoot at."
He goes on to describe how the Bush doctrine of transforming the Middle East has backfired. Rather than weakening terrorists, Bush has strengthened them. Shiites swept the Iraq elections, Ahmadjinejad became president of Iran, Hamas achieved electoral victory in Palestine, Hezbollah reigns in Lebanon. As a consequence, Americans, including right-wingers, are beginning to think the United States should mind its own business.
And guess who gets all the blame for this?
"More than any other group, it was the neoconservatives both inside and outside the Bush administration who pushed for democratizing Iraq and the broader Middle East. They are widely credited (or blamed) for being the decisive voices promoting regime change in Iraq."
Now hold on a second. You have to cut me, oops, I mean neo-conservatives some slack here. The neocons' intentions were good; there was logic behind their ideas.
Neoconservatives noticed that Democrats were talented when it came to the idealistic motives of liberal internationalism and that Republicans were skillful when it came to yielding power. Logically, it seems to follow that combining the two would result in, for lack of a better phrase, the best of both worlds. In the neo-con dream world, the entire Middle East would be democratized in the belief that this would eliminate a prime breeding ground for terrorists. In their view, the world can achieve peace only through strong U.S. leadership backed by credible force, not weak treaties to be disrespected by tyrants.
Fukuyama's commentary claims that Reagan's total victory over communism gave the current generation of neocons this irrational exuberance toward foreign policy.
"The way the cold war ended," he said, "seems to have created an expectation that all totalitarian regimes were hollow at the core and would crumble with a small push from outside." In retrospect, the neocons have learned several things.
First, that the Bush administration and its neoconservative supporters did not simply underestimate the difficulty of bringing about good-natured political outcomes in places like Iraq, but also misunderstood the way the world would react to the use of American power. Neocons now see that the global reaction to the Iraq war has instead united much of the world into a frenzy of anti-Americanism. Many neocons now realize that the root cause of terrorism doesn't lie in the Middle East's lack of democracy, but rather in something much deeper. And by exerting an American "benevolent hegemony" over them, it is actually increasing the problem. Ouch, that was painful for this neocon to write.
So what do we do now? Whether you are conservative, neoconservative, liberal or neoliberal, we are now in this war, like it or not. We need to realize that this is not a war like we have ever fought before.
Fukumaya perfectly explains the situation we are in when he says, "Meeting the jihadist challenge is more of a long, twilight struggle whose core is not military campaign but a political contest for the hearts and minds of ordinary Muslims around the world."
Although it may be a bit late for this, neocons are realizing that they need to rethink the place of democracy promotion in American foreign policy. We must remember that the United States has helped many countries with their democratic transition, including the Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan. But the difference was that those countries were politically and economically ripe for democracy.
Neoconservatives have famously been described as "liberals who were mugged by reality." And it looks like you could say that neoconservatives have once again been mugged by reality. Does this mean they go all the way to calling themselves paleoconservatives, or does it mean they modify their ideas and call themselves neo-neoconservatives? (Which I'm pretty sure would be another way of saying we don't know what the heck to do anymore.)


